My take on why Labour lost Bradford West

Looking from the outside into Bradford West I’m going to give the reasons why I think Labour went down to a damaging defeat in this by-election. In a week where Labour has seen its highest polling lead over the Conservatives for years, as they led the polls by 10% 3 days running, it would seem that Labour presumed that victory was in their sight. With the Tories being Labour’s closest challengers at the last election in the constituency and the Tories having had a disastrous week: delivering the Millionaires budget, cash for access row, the pasty tax and presiding over the fuel debacle, it seemed even more of a foregone conclusion than it previously might have done that Labour would win the by-election.

Did this mean that Labour took the by-election too weakly? Not really, Ed Miliband alongside other prominent Labour MPs and shadow cabinet members all visited Bradford West showing their support for Labour candidate Imran Hussain. Moving onto Hussain. He was a local candidate, as a councillor in the Toller ward of the city and had been deputy leader of the Bradford city council since 2010. Being a local, well-known candidate alongside Labour riding high in the polls, Bradford West seemed destined to elect another Labour MP. So how did it all go wrong?

Of course George Galloway is a politician that divides people, some love him for his brutal honesty (often not associated with traditional politicians) and others hate him. However if it wasn’t for George Galloway, Labour would not have lost. No one can argue that it wasn’t the Respect party that won it for him. They wouldn’t have even figured in the top three, if Galloway hadn’t put his candidacy forward. Galloway clearly campaigned about being a “parliamentarian” rather than a councillor – a clear dig at Hussain.  Galloway’s election strategy was a clear anti-war message rather than focusing too much on local issues. The anti-Iraq war stance alongside his message to bring the troops home from Afghanistan and his opposition against any future war in Iran were all clear vote winners for not only the big Muslim electorate but also for the rest of the electorate including the white working class vote. Due to Galloway’s massive margin of victory it would be wrong to say that (as people are) that Galloway only courted the Muslim vote, rather he took wide support.

A straight talking politician such as Galloway and his anti-war election strategy seemed to have mobilised a large number of first-time voters. Although we are unlikely to know this for sure, it seems that Respect got a lot of votes from people who hadn’t gone out and voted in 2010 (if before at all). The major parties (if we still call the Lib Dems that) failed to get their vote out, because the parties and their supporters (wrongly) assumed that this seat would be easily held by the Labour Party. This is seen that the turnout fell, expected in a by-election and also the major parties share of the vote fell sharply (over 20% in both Labour and the Tories vote share)

Finally local issues may have also played a role in the election defeat for Labour. A Labour administration serving Bradford City Council saw languishing schools performance throughout the city, which was picked up by Galloway as well as the “hole in the city centre” – meaning the undeveloped area in the centre where Westfield were meant to be developing a shopping centre. Galloway argued that Bradford West needed an outsider to change that. This is likely to have hit a nerve and further reduced backing for Imran Hussain (being a councillor at present) from the electorate with voters asking, why Labour hadn’t done anything earlier whilst they were running the council.

Galloway knew the message he needed to get across, who to get it across too and how to get it across. This is something that Labour clearly failed to do and was the reason that Labour failed to hold Bradford West.  Labour can’t simply take the vote from voters in Northern cities for granted; they need to give voters something to vote for rather than just an anti-Tory argument, which seems all too prevalent at times.